Detailed Digest — 2026-07-01 (organized by category)

Full run: all five regions merged and grouped by theme so cross-book patterns are visible.

Geopolitical Geo

US–Iran MOU ends the Hormuz war (17 June). 60-day ceasefire, suspension of US sanctions on Iranian crude, ~$24bn frozen funds released, no-nuclear commitment, strait reopened. Iran has exported 40mn+ barrels since, reportedly ~20% above pre-war prices; Brent fell to ~$84. CNBC
Oman framed as co-sovereign of the strait as toll-free transit resumes. Wikipedia — 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
Israel ceasefires with Iran and Hezbollah sharply cut war costs (IDF daily spend from ~1bn to <250m shekels). Ynetnews
Türkiye political turmoil after the court removal of the opposition leader (see Political). Al Jazeera

Macro Macro

South Africa — SARB hiked repo 25bp to 7% (28 May), first hike since 2023; CPI 4.5% May (highest since Jul 2024); 2026 inflation forecast raised to 4.4%; rand ~16.18/$. CNBC Africa · BusinessTech
Nigeria — inflation up to 15.93% May (food 17.8%, transport 17.1%); CBN MPR 26.5% (cut 50bp Feb); naira stable post-float. Businessday
Türkiye — inflation 32.61% May (highest since Oct 2025); CBRT held rates a 3rd straight meeting, restrictive. Trading Economics · ING
Egypt — urban inflation 14.6% May; rates ~21–22%; pound ~54/$; NIR ~$53.1bn end-May; IMF EFF on track. Trading Economics · IMF
Iraq — ~$5bn (ID6.7tn) deficit first four months; oil exports cut to ~1/3 during near-closure. AGBI
UAE / Saudi — rates held (UAE 3.65%, tracking Fed); Saudi CPI 1.8% May, FY2025 GDP ~4.4%. Voice of Emirates · Saudi Press Agency
Israel — growth ~3.5–3.8% 2026 (ahead of G7); shekel 33-yr high (~2.80/$, +20% y/y). CNBC
Pakistan — IMF SLA 27 Mar; FY26 growth ~3.6%, inflation ~7.2%; reserves >$18bn by end-June. IMF · Business Recorder
Angola > Kenya — Angola now Africa's 6th-largest economy (~$152bn vs ~$147bn) on IMF 2026 data. PACCI
Kazakhstan / Uzbekistan — 2026 growth ~5.5% / ~6.8%; tenge ~535/$. Times of Central Asia
Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana / Jordan / Morocco / Algeria — Côte d'Ivoire ~6.5% (2025), $1.3bn Eurobond; Ghana cedi strong in 2025; Jordan ~2.7% with IMF EFF review; Morocco ~5%; Algeria ~4%. AfDB — Côte d'Ivoire · Arab News — Jordan

FDI / Multinationals FDI MNC

Nigeria — Dangote $4.2bn 25-yr GCL (China) gas deal; ~$40bn refinery IPO planned; $12bn expansion to 1.4m bpd; ExxonMobil $1.5bn deepwater, Shell Bonga North, TotalEnergies OPL 257. African Business · Billionaires.africa
Egypt — $18.5bn Saudi/UAE tourism deal; targeting ~$42bn FDI this FY; Gulf SWFs dominant. Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi PIF — 2026–2030 strategy, ~80% domestic / 20% international, six ecosystems; co-investment angle. Zawya
UAE — US investment review (5 June, "exceeding commitments"); April UAE–China pact; Make it in the Emirates 2026. UAE Embassy
Morocco — Gotion 20 GWh gigafactory (Kenitra) and BTR cathode plant (Tangier), both H2 2026; autos/aerospace FDI. Atalayar
Uzbekistan / Kazakhstan — Tashkent forum ~$43.1bn in 166 agreements; Kazakhstan a top-4 investor in Uzbekistan. Times of Central Asia · Astana Times
South Africa — DBSA/Zimi (EV); Proparco €20m to Calgro M3 (housing); SA ~35% of African M&A. ImpactAlpha
Côte d'Ivoire — Strategic Sovereign Development Fund launched (April). Capmad

Political Political

Türkiye — court annulled CHP's 2023 congress (21 May), ousting Özel, reinstating Kılıçdaroğlu; Borsa Istanbul −6% (circuit breaker), protests. Bloomberg
Iraq — PM Al-Zaidi's new cabinet (since mid-May) yet to pass a 2026 budget; parliament floated an ID20–30tn stopgap; devaluation vs spending cuts debated. Kurdistan24

Banking / Financial sector Banking

UAE — Q1 2026 bank assets AED 5.56tn (+17.7% y/y), loans +20.3%, CAR 16.8%, net NPLs 1.5%. CBUAE QER June 2026
Saudi Arabia — investment-grade across agencies (Moody's Aa3, Fitch A+); Moody's upgrade to Aa3. countryeconomy.com
Israel — NIS 1.6bn (~$537m) state aid for tech/startups hit by the shekel's surge. Times of Israel
Lebanon — IMF (Feb mission) engagement on bank-restructuring legislation; slow progress. IMF

Watch List (combined)

~16 Aug — end of the 60-day US–Iran negotiating window.
Central banks — next SARB, CBN, CBRT, SAMA/CBUAE decisions; Egypt & Pakistan IMF tranches.
Türkiye — CHP legal fallout and market/lira reaction.
Iraq — budget/stopgap decision and possible dinar move.
Corporate — Dangote ~$40bn refinery IPO; Morocco gigafactory commissioning.

Quiet today

Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Cameroon, Gabon, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain — no material verified developments.